Failed Predictions of the HIV AIDS Hypothesis

A mere sampling.

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In order to be considered viable, a scientific hypothesis needs to both explain phenomena and predict outcomes with accuracy. If a hypothesis finds itself continually making predictions that fail, it needs to at the very least be seriously reassessed. The HIV AIDS hypothesis has provided a stunning array of predictions that have utterly failed to eventuate. Here are a few, inspired by the list I compiled as an appendix to The Real AIDS Epidemic. I did not include every failed prediction in this list today.

• HIV causes immune deficiency by killing CD4+ T cells. Not only has no plausible HIV-mediated mechanism for the depletion of CD4+ T cells been observed or proposed, it has become very clear that viewing AIDS as a disease of T cell depletion is far too narrow. Other immunological abnormalities have been observed, including changes in the natural killer cell population, but the biggest pivot is the consensus that AIDS involves “massive inflammation,” which overlaps with autoimmunity and indicates the urgent need for more research, including into HIV-negative immune disorders.

• By 1990, one in five heterosexuals may be dead of AIDS. This was Oprah Winfrey’s dire prediction, made at the beginning of AIDS. Although clearly this didn’t pan out, one thing she got right was that there is indeed a heterosexual epidemic of HIV-negative AIDS, which I will be examining in detail in a series of posts coming very soon.

• A cure will be available by 1986. No cure has yet eventuated, and the best that the AIDS establishment can offer is to be “retained in care” on toxic antiretroviral medications for life, while their kidneys fail and they need both hips replaced, only to be told the treatment is working because they are “undetectable.”

• A vaccine will be available by 1986. This is so far from the truth that it would be funny if it weren’t sad. Not only has every vaccine trial to date been a flop, a vaccine may be impossible since HIV-positive individuals have antibody to HIV to begin with. Indeed, as some trials indicate, it is possible for a vaccine recipient to exhibit “vaccine induced seropositivity,” which is virtually indistinguishable from “infection acquired seropositivity.” Instead, after nearly one hundred failed vaccine trials, the AIDS establishment can only offer the daily use of HIV treatment as HIV preventatives, by offering PrEP.

• HIV will spread by sexual transmission, injecting drug use, and needle stick injuries. All the available mainstream literature regarding transmission of HIV positivity gives the estimate that it takes at least 1000 unprotected sexual contacts with an HIV-positive individual to seroconvert; even a constant number of cases would be difficult to maintain in this manner. Regarding injection drug use, studies show that user of “clean needle” exchange programs are significantly more likely to test HIV positive than those who do not use clean needles.

• AIDS will develop within one to five years of infection with HIV. This prediction has been revised many times. Not only is there no agreed upon “latent period” for HIV anymore, it appears that the official story is now that “untreated, HIV can lead to AIDS.” Eventually. We’re all gonna die someday. (Bonus points if you know what song that’s from.)

• Anti-HIV drugs stop AIDS. We’ve covered this extensively. Please refer to previous posts, especially “Anti-HIV drugs are not specific to HIV” and “The drugs don’t work.” It is estimated that, in the United States, only very slightly more than 50% of HIV positive individuals are “retained in care.” If this is the case, these untreated individuals—half a million individuals—ought to be showing up with full blown AIDS en masse. This is not happening. Has AIDS changed?

• HIV will spread rapidly through the population. In fact, as has been discussed previously, HIV positivity was already everywhere present in the United States, at a positive level in every risk group, when widespread testing began in 1984. The prevalence of HIV positivity has remained stable for forty years at 0.3% of the population, which contradicts any idea that the tests are measuring an infectious pathogen. What about globally? Considering only HIV positivity here—true AIDS incidence rates are extremely tricky to establish given the circularity of the definition of AIDS—recall the following statement made in 1987 by Theresa Crenshaw of the President’s AIDS Commission: “if the spread of AIDS continues at this rate, in 1996 there could be one billion people infected; five years later, hypothetically ten billion… Could we be facing the possibility of extinction during our lifetime?” Currently, only 38 million people worldwide are estimated to be HIV positive, the identical figure from 2007; again, its utter constancy incompatible with an infectious agent. We will look at AIDS in far more detail in an upcoming post.

• AIDS will decimate Africa. Even in the hardest hit regions of sub-Saharan Africa, the population has been growing at 2-3% per year throughout the AIDS epidemic. Furthermore, the definition of AIDS in Africa does not even necessarily require positivity for antibody to HIV—perhaps an ideal situation in which to closely consider the possibility of non HIV AIDS.

Some questions for my readers: What do you think of these predictions? Are there any more that I have not considered? And, perhaps more importantly, can you think of any predictions made by the AIDS establishment that have proven correct? I’d love to hear from you in the comments.