Breaking(ish) News: CIA Endorses “Lab Leak” Origin Theory of Covid-19
ICYMI: CIA's "low confidence" in the lab leak origin nevertheless changes the landscape
Given the current tsunami of news, you may have missed the Saturday, January 25, Wall Street Journal report that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) “has now concluded that the deadly Covid-19 pandemic most likely arose from a laboratory leak, lending credibility to a view that has been the focus of sharp debate among scientists and politicians for years.” (1)
The CIA now agrees with the FBI, the National Intelligence Council and the Energy Department—the first agency to reach the conclusion—that a “laboratory mishap” at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (Wuhan, China) accidentally released the SARS CoV-2 virus in late 2019.
“CIA assesses with low confidence that a research-related origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely than a natural origin based on the available body of reporting,” according to a January 25 statement from a CIA spokesman. (1)
This is the first time that the CIA has indicated it was open to abandoning the “natural” or zoonotic origin theory of Covid-19—that the virus leapt from an animal to humans in Wuhan, China, where there just happens to be a virology institute—to embrace, however cautiously, the lab leak theory.
New CIA Director John Ratcliffe declassified the statement so it could be distributed shortly after his confirmation.
The Chinese government has refused to cooperate with investigations attempting to determine the origin of the virus and seemed displeased by the release of the CIA statement. (1)
The WSJ quoted Chinese Embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu, who said, “We firmly oppose the politicization and stigmatization of the source of the virus, and once again call on everyone to respect science and stay away from conspiracy theories.” (1)
The Associated Press (AP) reported on January 27 that “Instead of new evidence, the [CIA’s] conclusion was based on fresh analyses of intelligence about the spread of the virus, its scientific properties, and the work and conditions of China's virology labs.” (2)
The AP also enumerated the exotic menagerie of animals harboring the virus before it infected humans:
“While the origin of the virus remains unknown, scientists think the most likely hypothesis is that it circulated in bats, like many coronaviruses, before infecting another species, probably raccoon dogs, civet cats, or bamboo rats. In turn, the infection spread to humans handling or butchering those animals at a market in Wuhan, where the first human cases appeared in late November 2019.” (2)
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A side note to the above: While searching for further information about the new CIA Covid assessment, I encountered the rather eye-popping “David J. Sencer CDC Museum: In Association With the Smithsonian Institution.” Here’s the David J. Sencer CDC Museum link. (4)
According to Sencer’s Wikipedia, “David Judson Sencer (November 10, 1924 – May 2, 2011) was an American public health official who orchestrated the 1976 immunization program against swine flu.”
For those unfamiliar with what has come to be known as the swine flu vaccine fiasco—triggered by a president, Gerald R. Ford, rushing an experimental vaccine to the entire country—BBC.com has an excellent article, “The Fiasco of the 1976 ‘Swine Flu
Affair.’ ” (5)
Correspondent Richard Fisher described the first day of swine flu vaccination—October 12, 1976—when New York City deputy health commissioner and head of the city’s vaccination program Pascal Imperato was to receive the first vaccine in New York. The current mayor, Abraham Beame, had declined the honor. (5)
“But what was meant to be a ceremonial opening and positive public relations effort would turn sour. That week, the papers had begun reporting troubling news from vaccine clinics in Pittsburgh: three apparently unexplained deaths due to heart attack,” Fisher reported.
He continued:
“ ‘I remember that day. I remember it vividly,’ recalls Imperato. ‘I saw those headlines on the subway. And I said, Good God. All hell is breaking loose here.’ ” (5)
And, as Fisher recounts, the vaccination project went downhill from there. I highly recommend his insightful retelling of an emergency vaccination program gone bad.
But back to the David J. Sencer CDC Museum: I didn’t know that there’s a physical museum in Atlanta, in addition to its online presence where the 1976 swine flu vaccine program is not a draw. If you wish, pay a visit to the website and check out “HIV: 40 Years of Progress.”
I guess I’m not the only one neglecting the CDC Museum; the Museum’s home page hasn’t been reviewed since March 15, 2023.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Michael R. Gordon and Dustin Volz. “CIA Now Favors Lab Leak Theory on Origins of Covid-19.” Wall Street Journal, January 25, 2025.
2. Associated Press. “CIA Now Believes COVID Most Likely Originated From a Lab— But agency cited "low confidence" in its own assessment.” January 27, 2025.
3. “David Sencer.” Wikipedia.org. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David Sencer
4. The David J. Sencer CDC Museum: In Association With the Smithstonian Institution. “CDC Museum Covid-19 Timeline.” https://www.cdc.gov/museum/timeline/covid19.html
5. Richard Fisher. “The Fiasco of the 1976 ‘Swine Flu Affair.’ ” September 21, 2020. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200918-the-fiasco-of-the-us-swine-flu-affair-of-1976